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Latest Posts and Poll Analysis
End of 2025 Projections Update
2024 Result Fianna Fáil 48Sinn Féin 39Fine Gael 38Independents 16Social Democrats 11Labour 11Independent Ireland 4PBP/Solidarity 3Aontú 2Green Party 1100% Redress 1 Current Projection Fianna Fáil 42 (-6)Sinn Féin 43 (+4) Fine Gael 39 (+1)Independents 12 (-4)Social Democrats 15 (+4)Labour 10 (-1)Independent Ireland 6 (+2)PBP/Solidarity 3 (nc)Aontú 3 (+1)Green Party 0 (-1)100% Redress 1 (nc) Seat…
2025 Presidential Election
Hello. It’s been a while. Barring one set of projections – that I have as yet been unable to find the time to do a full post for – I know things have been quiet here. This is a combination of background work that has taken longer than anticipated, and also been influenced by events…
Post-General Election 2024 Model Analysis
Final Projection Fianna Fáil 48Sinn Féin 41Fine Gael 37Independents 21Social Democrats 6Labour 5Independent Ireland 5PBP/Solidarity 4Aontú 4Green Party 1100% Redress 0Right2Change 1Independents4Change 1 Actual Results (difference) Fianna Fáil 48 (0)Sinn Féin 39 (-2) Fine Gael 38 (+1)Independents 16 (-5)Social Democrats 11 (+5)Labour 11 (+6)Independent Ireland 4 (-1)PBP/Solidarity 3 (-1)Aontú 2 (-2)Green Party 1 (0)100% Redress…
Irish Election Projections 